Moto GP Tip

If there’s one thing bookmakers are infamous for (bar making lots of money of course) it’s jumping the gun.

Anyone remember Paddy Power paying out on Arsenal to win the league back in 2003, when the Gunners held a 12 point lead? Or when the same bookmaker paid out on Stoke to be relegated on the opening weekend of the 2008-09 season?

Well, suffice to say on both occasions Mr Power was left with egg on his face and a big hole in his pocket.

And while these are probably the two most famous examples in recent years, Paddy is far from being the only bookie to be caught out. You see, they tend to forget that in sport anything can - and usually does - happen.

So, who’s gone too soon this time? Well, you’ll be pleased to hear that it’s just about all of them, with second placed rider Dani Pedrosa widely available at 8/1 to win the Moto GP World Championship...

And 10.0 with Betfair

Despite the season not even having reached the halfway stage yet. As regular subscribers will know, I like to vary the sports that we make money from. So with the football season not yet underway, the tennis and golf between major tournaments and the cycling not all that interesting I’ve gone for a good outside bet in a sport that’s made for outside bets... Moto GP.

Now, let’s face it, a lot of motor sport is boring... I can honestly say, I would rather watch a Sex and the City box-set than an Indy 500 race. Yet Moto GP is the complete opposite...

With lots of bikes... Lots of corners... Lots of crashes... And lots of overtaking.

All of which means that Jorge Lorenzo’s current lead at the top of the standings of 47 points is very catchable... Particularly when you take into account that there are 25 points on offer for a race win and ten races to go.

Lorenzo has undoubtedly impressed during the first half of this season but he has also had it easier than usual, with team-mate Valentino Rossi missing the last five races with a broken leg.

However, Rossi is now back in action and means business, finishing an impressive fifth on his comeback last weekend. This is likely to heap the pressure on Lorenzo, who could become frustrated now that he is back in Valentino’s shadow.

And if that wasn’t enough for the 23 year old, he also has to contend with the fact that this would be his first ever World Championship victory.

With this in mind, it would be no surprise whatsoever if he struggles over the next few weeks and months and there’s every chance that the pressure could also result in an early exit or two...

Or four, as was the case last year. Pedrosa on the other hand can focus on doing as he did last season and finishing strongly. In the second half of 2009 he picked up 32 more points than Lorenzo and just 8 fewer than the all conquering Rossi. Finally, as regards other contenders for the championship crown, don't worry because there aren’t any...

Third placed Dovizioso is the weaker team-mate of Dani Pedrosa and all the others are too far behind to challenge.

So, back Dani Pedrosa to win the Moto GP World Championship at 10.0 with Betfair (or 8/1 elsewhere) and the lengthy odds should ensure that when it gets tight at the top, you'll not only have a potential big priced winner on your hands but an opportunity to lay the bet at a profit...

And who wouldn’t want that?!